Only a few sleeps separate us from the start of another AFL season which means that Fantasy coaches are making the final adjustments and tweaks to their first team of the year. Hours of tinkering and exploring different lineups have boiled down to this and now, just days out of a new Fantasy campaign we’re still in the dark over which youngsters we can trust. A rolling lockout makes life even harder when it comes to choosing your initial cash cows, only putting more emphasis on nailing the right picks. While no one knows if these 11 players will all earn a Round 1 gig, they shape as the most important rookies to begin the 2021 Fantasy season.
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Braeden Campbell, MID/FWD, Swans
Price (Breakeven): $262K (34)
AAMI Series Score: 57 from 80% TOG
Job Security /10: 7
Scoring Potential /10: 6.5
You’ve probably heard about Braeden Campbell’s foot skills by now and the Swans Academy jet will look to put them on display from as early as Round 1. Campbell has never been the greatest accumulator of the footy, but his damaging left foot combined with speed and elite vision has him poised to be very important for Fantasy coaches. Sydney doesn’t have a great track record of getting games into their kids early with 2019 draftees Dylan Stephens, Chad Warner and Will Gould combining to play just 10 matches last year. However, as the club turns over a new leaf and looks to the future I expect to see Campbell playing consistently for the Swans this year and an average in the 60’s is well within reach.
Archie Perkins, MID/FWD, Bombers
Price (Breakeven): $254K (33)
AAMI Series Score: 11 from 19% TOG
Job Security /10: 4
Scoring Potential /10: 6
For Archie Perkins, the biggest unknown around his Fantasy season lies in his job security. Essendon selected a trio of players inside the top-10 during the last draft and while Perkins looms as the pick of the bunch when it comes to Fantasy game, there are no guarantees he’ll get a chance to showcase his true talents. Going at an average of 68.4 from his NAB League games in 2019, Perkins split his time as a midfielder and a half-forward, a role he’ll likely slot into for the Bombers during his rookie campaign as well. He may be hard to trust on a weekly basis, but Perkins will have some big games in the upcoming season and the coaches who invest in him will be rewarded.
Image from zerohanger.com
Tom Highmore, DEF, Saints
Price (Breakeven): $182K (24)
AAMI Series Score: 37 from 57% TOG
Job Security /10: 5.5
Scoring Potential /10: 6
Intercept defenders are all the rage in AFL Fantasy circles and Tom Highmore looks set to play that role for St Kilda from day one of the new season. Injuries to Jarryn Geary, Ben Patton and James Frawley have opened the door for Highmore to debut against GWS, with the mature-age recruit already showcasing his talents this preseason. He didn’t blow the doors off in the AAMI match vs. Carlton, however, the 23-year old did score at a decent clip (72.5 points from 11 games) in the SANFL a year ago and given the scarce number of rookies in DEF, Highmore is one I expect to see in most Fantasy sides when lockout strikes.
Tom Powell, MID, Kangaroos
Price (Breakeven): $246K (32)
AAMI Series Score: 64 from 67% TOG
Job Security /10: 7
Scoring Potential /10: 8.5
How the tables have turned. A few months ago I was blowing up the tires of North Melbourne’s newest draftees, ranking Tom Powell as second in line for early games at the Roos behind his peer Will Phillips. Fast forward to just a few days out from season 2021 and Powell looks like a lock for the first team of the year, well ahead of the No. 3 pick. Powell’s absurd disposal/fantasy scoring average at U-18 level (33.5 touches, 118.5 fantasy points per) needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but he seems ready to step onto an AFL field and contribute – for both North Melbourne and the 35% of coaches who have picked him.
Lachlan Jones, DEF, Power
Price (Breakeven): $240K (32)
AAMI Series Score: 43 from 42% TOG
Job Security /10: 3.5
Scoring Potential /10: 5
It’s hard to see Lachlan Jones holding down a regular spot in Port Adelaide’s outfit for the duration of the year, which also makes it hard to trust him in Fantasy. There may not be a draftee with a more ready-made body than Jones, although, despite his imposing physical traits the newest Power defender doesn’t have a great track record when it comes to scoring points. It’s worth noting he did play every game in a SANFL premiership side last year, but averaging 50.4 points highlights a limit to Jones’ Fantasy game. Regardless, he should be in line for matches at some point in 2021 and after a solid preseason, those matches could come early for the Power’s man-child.
Image from foxsports.com.au
Matthew Flynn, RUC, Giants
Price (Breakeven): $170K (22)
AAMI Series Score: DNP
Job Security /10: 7
Scoring Potential /10: 6
Sam Jacobs’ retirement, Shane Mumford’s aging body and a shoulder reconstruction for Braydon Preuss have given Matthew Flynn the perfect blueprint for Fantasy success early on this season. Rookie ruckman at basement price are always good for a quick increase in value – providing they play matches consistently and despite Flynn missing the AAMI match with an ankle issue, if he’s in for Round 1, he should find his way into every Classic team. Considering his biggest threat comes in the shape of another unproven ruck, Kieren Briggs, I’d be surprised if Flynn didn’t perform like one of the best cash cows before he’s given a spell.
Will Phillips, MID, Kangaroos
Price (Breakeven): $266K (35)
AAMI Series Score: 11 from 22% TOG
Job Security /10: 5
Scoring Potential /10: 7
Fear not Will Phillips owners! While the newest North young gun hasn’t turned heads in the preseason, he’s still positioned well to matter for Fantasy coaches. Having missed his entire 2020 season, you can see why North is taking a cautious approach to start Phillips’ career and when he does take to the park solid numbers should follow. Much like Caleb Serong last year, Phillips could fall victim to a lower TOG %, but reduced interchanges may mean the Roos prospect is given a larger role when he breaks into their 22. There’s still a chance that Phillips makes North Melbourne’s first team of the year, but even if he is forced to wait make sure you invest in the newest No. 29 when he is selected.
James Rowe, FWD, Crows
Price (Breakeven): $196K (26)
AAMI Series Score: 58 from 82% TOG
Job Security /10: 7
Scoring Potential /10: 4
An average of 70 in the SANFL (yes another one) last year bodes well for James Rowe’s scoring output in his rookie season and he should be given the chance to perform at Adelaide. Another mature-age recruit, Rowe has dominated at state-level for the past two seasons and the Crows will need all the firepower they can get their hands on after ending 2020 as the worst offensive team. While there are a lot of pro’s when it comes to picking Rowe, a lot of his notable scores will be fuelled by a bag of goals and it’s fair to assume Adelaide will be conceding a lot more than they’ll kick this season. He should still establish himself as a safer cash cow in the forward line for coaches but expect there to be some 40’s in Rowe’s Fantasy box scores.
Lloyd Meek, RUC, Dockers
Price (Breakeven): $170K (22)
AAMI Series Score (TOG): 70 from 83% TOG
Job Security /10: 6
Scoring Potential /10: 5
Sean Darcy and Rory Lobb’s injury issues have paved the way for another basement ruck rookie to matter and Lloyd Meek has taken the opportunity in front of him so far. A strong showing in the practice matches and AAMI Series contest has Meek firming as Freo’s R1 to commence the new season and if he plays his cards right he could be in line for a ton of games. If he can capitalise on his chances early in the year, Fremantle may be forced to continue playing the bargain rookie, however, it is hard to trust the job security of the unproven Docker. A bench spot is where he’ll sit for most coaches to start the season and I expect him to perform well enough to do his job as a cash cow.
Errol Gulden, MID, Swans
Price (Breakeven): $208K (27)
AAMI Series Score: 72 from 81% TOG
Job Security /10: 5.5
Scoring Potential /10: 7.5
One practice match and one 72-point outing against the Giants have seen Errol Gulden become a mainstream rookie name and his ownership has vaulted as a result. Now residing in nearly a quarter of all Classic teams, Gulden is in line to debut during Sydney’s clash with the Lions and a strong showing may help him cement himself in their weekly side. Another former Swans Academy member, the club made sure they didn’t lose Gulden in the latest draft and as they look to inject more youth into their midfield, Sydney could hand a lot of opportunity to their next brigade of players. Should he solidify a spot in the side, expect Gulden to push as Sydney’s best scoring cash cow.
Connie Downie, MID, Hawks
Price (Breakeven): $202K (27)
AAMI Series Score (TOG): 63 from 78% TOG
Job Security /10: 6
Scoring Potential /10: 6.5
An open place on the wing appears up for grabs on Hawthorn’s team sheet and Connor Downie is quickly putting his hand up to fill the void. One of the better performers in the Hawks’ intraclub early in the preseason, Downie did his Round 1 chances no harm after gathering 17 touches against North Melbourne in the AAMI Series. The 18-year old may bounce in and out of Hawthorn’s team in his rookie year, but there is a chance he can lock down permanent games in year one and do a solid job for Fantasy coaches in the process.
Best of the Rest
Chad Warner, FWD, $196K, Swans
Having featured in two games last year, Chad Warner should be given a chance to build on that this season. All of a sudden, Sydney seems flush with notable young guns, which gives me pause over Warner’s role/job security – despite an impressive performance in the AAMI Series.
Paul Hunter, RUC, $170K, Saints
The appeal is there to start with Paul Hunter, however, I can’t see him staying in the side once Rowan Marshall and Paddy Ryder are playing – which could be as early as Round 3-4. While Hunter may only last a month, that still could be long enough for him to do his job for Fantasy coaches.
James Jordon, MID, $170K, Demons
Another largely unknown prospect, basement rookie James Jordon is shaping up as a bolter to become a Round 1 debutant. Drafted in the second round back in 2018, Jordan could play a role as a Fantasy cash cow, but I’d only want him on my bench.
Nikolas Cox, DEF/FWD, $256K, Bombers
Fantasy coaches had their ears perk up when they heard Essendon flirting with the idea of playing Nikolas Cox on the wing this season. The versatile tall is another youngster who could get lots of opportunity in 2021, although I have my doubts over his scoring ability.
Harrison Jones, FWD, $170K, Bombers
The Bombers have been raving about this kid since he arrived at the club in 2019 and after watching him in the preseason we can see why! Key position players are usually ones we avoid, but there’s certainly value in choosing Jones to start on your FWD pine.
Miles Bergman, FWD, $170K, Power
With Port Adelaide in premiership mode, it’s hard to envision Miles Bergman getting games week in, week out. I’d love to see him slot into their back-6 and become a versatile DEF/FWD rookie and he’ll have to make the most of his chances when they do come up this season.