16 down, 7 to go.

THAT one hurt. As lockout approach and the Sunday squads were finalised I came to down to flipping a coin to decide how to go about my moves last week. The result meant my score resembled something similar to the bye weeks. It’s not all doom and gloom though, with the final third of the season still salvageable if things can break right. It’s crazy to consider that there are still seven weekends after such an eventful, tumultuous year to date, but it’s important to keep our eyes on the prize and not get thrown off our game after a bad outing.

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MY TEAM

1892 – The number of future draft picks the OKC Thunder now own, also the year the Collingwood Football Club was founded.
UGGHHH. The planning for 2020 has well and truly begun for the Large Fry’s & Coke. Seeing all my MID bench rookies dumped meant I was chopping and changing my trades right up until lockout, where I took a chance on debutant Kyle Dunkley. Couple that Gawn/Boak’s DNP’s and a poor captain choice in Nat Fyfe and Round 16 was one I’d rather forget.

INJURY ISSUES

WHILE not all the players mentioned here are dealing with ‘injury issues’ exactly, none of them are certainties to appear in Round 17.

Taylor Adams – An eight-week injury layoff should come to an end for Adams this week.
Grant Birchall – Could come in for his first game in over two years.
Travis Boak – Ken Hinkley has all but assured fantasy coaches Boak will be back next week after being a late out in Round 16.
Darcy Cameron – Could come straight in to lead Sydney’s ruck division if he’s declared fit.
Stephen Coniglio – There were some concerns around Cogs’ knee for next week, but it seems like he’ll be fine.
Patrick Cripps – Carlton remains adamant that Cripps will return for the Swans clash.
Nat Fyfe – Copped plenty of knocks in Derby 50, but isn’t listed on the injury list.
Max Gawn – Over 40% of coaches will be on ‘Gawn watch’ as the week ticks on. My gut says he plays.
Daniel Hannebery – After failing to get up for the Roos clash, Hanners is no certainty this week either. Monitor.
Dyson Heppell – The Dons’ leader will have to pass a fitness test to overcome a foot complaint.
Marty Hore – A broken collarbone means Hore could be on the sidelines for over a month.
Josh Kelly – It looks like Kelly is going to miss multiple weeks after injuring his calf. Unfortunately, he’s a must trade.
Caleb Marchbank – A neck injury will all but end Marchbank’s season.
Tom McDonald – Ditto for McDonald with a knee injury leaving his year in jeopardy.
Wil Powell – No timetable has been confirmed yet, but Powell’s season appears to be done after a knee injury.
Jack Riewoldt – Should play for the Tigers in Round 17 after a nine-week hiatus.
Lachie Whitfield – After pulling up sore on Friday, Whitfield should an (almost) certain starter this week for GWS.

Melbourne defender Marty Hore has his arm in a sling.#AFLBluesDees pic.twitter.com/1VwhJvMIiM

— AFL.com.au (@AFLcomau) July 7, 2019

FRY’S FAVOURITE FIVE

Honourable Mentions: Marcus Bontempelli (124), Justin Westhoff (132), Dylan Shiel (125)

+5. Tom Rockliff, Power (MID, $740K – 150)
ALL signs pointed to a big return for Tom Rockliff this round and he didn’t disappoint. Nearly 3,500 coaches traded in the Power stud and true to form, Rocky ran around accumulating plenty of late touches to top score in Round 16. A few fantasy-friendly matchups in the near future makes him a very viable trade target this week.

+4. Stephen Coniglio, Giants (MID, $779K – 146)
JUST quietly, while his teammates Josh Kelly and Tim Taranto prove to be huge talking points, Stephen Coniglio has restored his reputation as a top-8 midfielder. His electric 34 disposal, 11 tackle game against the Lions boosted his average back over the coveted 110 barrier, much to the delight of one-quarter of the competition.

+3. Lachie Neale, Lions (MID, $694K – 134)
IS Lachie Neale back? After a 120 in Round 15, Neale came to the party again for owners last weekend, helping himself to another lofty point total in game No. 150. Still priced under $700k, there’s nothing wrong with considering Neale if you need a midfield boost, however, he’s priced this low for a reason following some dull performances in the middle portion of the season.

+2. Jack Billings, Saints (MID/FWD, $708K – 128)
I think I have to thank Josh Corbett here. I was planning on trading Billings out during the byes, but when Corbett was dropped I opted to shuffle some rookies around instead of moving Billings along. Of course, St Kilda’s most fantasy relevant player has gone on to average 125+ since his bye round, with a lot of people now trying to bring him back into their outfits.

+1. James Sicily, Hawks (DEF, $570K – 121)
CONSIDERING the torment and stress James Sicily has caused his owners in the last few rounds, it was nice to see him ease the stress to kick things off positively last weekend. He smashed his way to 100 before three-quarter time and rounded it out nicely to post the highest score in the Hawks-Pies game. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again, being a James Sicily owner is a roller-coaster; thank god it’s moving in the right direction at the moment.

FRY’S FRUSTRATING FIVE

Dishonourable Mentions: Ricky Henderson (45), Tim Kelly (65), Max Gawn (DNP), Angus Brayshaw (65)

-5. Dustin Martin, Tigers (MID/FWD, $724K – 58)
ALL signs were pointing to Dustin Martin being one of the rounds highest scorers, so naturally, he put forth his lowest score of the season. None of us thought that the Brad Scheer tag was going to be a factor or something we needed to be worried about, but the young Sun shadowed Dusty restricting him to 19 touches. Considering the ease in which Richmond won the game, it was infuriating to see Martin missing out on the points on offer.

-4. Nat Fyfe, Dockers (MID, $713K – 61)
AS an unfortunate and embarrassed Fremantle supporter, let’s try and put last Saturday night behind us quickly. Nat Fyfe was well held by West Coast in their colossal victory, with the frustrated Dockers skipper giving away five free kicks in his worst outing of the year. Imagine making him captain…

Image from 7news.com.au

-3. Zach Merrett, Bombers (MID, $709K – 57)
JUST 66% time on ground saw Zach Merrett throw up a rookie like score against the Swans. Throwing up was commonly associated with Merrett’s owners on the weekend as coaches watched him cop a big hit in the second term and never look the same for the rest of the game. He battled on and kept his score slowly ticking over, but a sub-60 game was brutal to watch as his five-round average ticked under 95.

-2. Bachar Houli, Tigers (DEF, $692K – 75)
ANOTHER player who’s average continues to trend in the wrong direction is Bachar Houli. Looking like he belonged in the top handful of fantasy defenders just a few weeks ago, Houli has followed up five consecutive tons with three scores under 90. His last two scores in the 70’s coincide with Jayden Short’s inclusion back into the squad, which could be bad news for Houli’s future output.

-1. Mitch Duncan, Cats (MID, $758K – 75)
EVERY now and then a fantasy star will have an off weekend, usually against another loaded midfield. The latest casualty to fall into this category is Mitch Duncan, who hasn’t been able to produce similar numbers to the ones that saw his ownership increase around the byes. He’ll bounce back, but still, this is a letdown.

TRADE TACTICS

IN – GIVEN the unreal schedule coming up for the Eagles, Andrew Gaff (MID, $748K – 100) looks set to be one of the most popular trade-in targets if your midfield needs re-tooling. While I’m all for an Andrew Gaff move, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on his teammate Luke Shuey (MID, $734K – 114) as a unique option to round out your engine room. Sticking with the West Coast theme, a lot of coaches are moving one of their last rookies off the ground this week, which could see Shannon Hurn (DEF, $606K – 94) come into calculations after his price dip. Don’t rule out Christian Salem (DEF, $639K – 87) as an option in defense as well after three nice scores, albeit against the Dockers, Lions and Blues.

YOUNG Hawk Oliver Hanrahan (FWD, $211K – 74) has been my favourite rookie target for the last fortnight along with Richmond’s Mabior Chol (FWD, $296K – 58). Both of them should be good forward bench plays moving forward, with Hanrahan the better pick given the extra savings on offer. Isaac Quaynor (DEF, $270K – 78) was impressive on debut and has probably justified his spot in Collingwood’s side for a few weeks, with Kyle Dunkley (MID, $182K – 46) set to be traded in for a bunch of coaches if he holds his spot.

OUT –  INJURY issues to big-name players will dictate a lot of moves ahead of Round 17. Josh Kelly (MID, $850K – 89) is the biggest concern, with the best player in the game currently nursing a calf complaint that could see him miss this weeks game. His status is up in the air with his teammate Stephen Coniglio (MID, $779K – 146) and the likes of Max Gawn (RUC, $807K – DNP) and Travis Boak (MID/FWD, $737K – DNP) surrounded by doubt. If any combination of the above players misses and you want to get another superstar in their place or move a rookie off your field with the extra $$$, it can be justified. Let’s also quickly discuss the Angus Brayshaw (MID, $611K – 65) saga, he’s got to go. Plain and simple. If you look to downgrade him to a Marc Murphy/Dan Hannebery type I honestly think it’s worth the dice roll.

Image from melbournefc.com.au

WE saw on the weekend just how important it can be to have a playing emergency in each line, so my aggressive suggestion to move fattened cash cows on isn’t as popular right now. However, there are some rookies that can be chopped with Marty Hore‘s (DEF, $407K – 18) injury ruling him out. You can’t go fielding Griffin Logue (DEF, $340K –30) after the dismal Derby showing too, so an upgrade would be a high priority. Moving on the non-playing likes of Oskar Baker (MID, $381K – DNP) and/or Brett Bewley (MID, $298K – DNP) is also a fine choice unless they re-enter the senior side.

WAIVER WIRE WATCH

FIRST things first, make sure you do your due diligence and make sure that someone like Toby McLean (MID/FWD, 68% – 82) isn’t still sitting on a waiver wire after finding his way back into the Bulldogs side. You can catch opposing coaches off guard by adding him and the likes of Jack Newnes (MID/FWD, 47% – 87) and the versatile Jack Silvagni(DEF/FWD, 11% – 109) after they were welcomed back to their respective AFL sides. I was also surprised to find Bayley Fritsch (MID/DEF, 18% – 121) available in so many leagues, shaping up as another great waiver wire addition. He won’t go kicking five goals each week, but Jason Castagna (FWD, 3% – 118) could also help coaches in deeper leagues, with Shaun McKernan (FWD, 15% – 102) still a good selection in the hope he gets RUC status after the new DPP’s become available in Round 18.

MY MOVES

I’M sitting on over $400k in my savings right now and it’s going to be hard to resist the urge to spend it all at once this week. I can empty my pockets and land two good upgrades for one and a half crappy players (see below), but the wise move might be to space the cash out over a few weeks instead of blowing it at once. Isaac Quaynor could be a choice until Howe is back, but I think I’d rather get a true upgrade with each of my remaining trades.

My Trades
G.Logue → S.Hurn
A.Brayshaw → L.Shuey

Peace ✌