AFL Fantasy 2018 – Round 18 Wrap Up

DESPITE scoring another massive score, for the second straight week, I barely moved in the rankings. Well, it’s not a massive score, but finishing around the high 2200’s or low 2300’s is a nice change from the depths of hell my scores have commonly been associated with. After rising up just 798 spots in Round 17 I slid back another 245 places, proving that I need to make the most of every trade if I want to finish with a decent ranking. Not to mention the fact that there’s just one week left until finals commence. Things are starting to heat up.

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My Team

2277 – How many strokes Tiger took to complete the back nine at the 2018 US Open.
ONCE again a few huge scores nestled among too many scores hovering around 80. Luke Ryan all but signed his transfer papers and Sidebottom/Gibbs had better sleep with one eye open. Overall, though most of the core delivered, with the exception of a few.

AFL Fantasy 2018 - Round 18 Wrap Up 1

Looking Ahead

STARTING with tribunal news Tom Cutler and Daniel Howe owners (potentially in draft) might want to start looking for replacements. The duo has been whacked with multi-game bans and will miss at least the next two weeks each. Unbelievably there were four players on the weekend who were late out from their respective sides. Sean Darcy and Jaeger O’Meara are a little more fantasy relevant than Steven Motlop (sorry J-Lo) and Darcy Moore, so if you own either of them you might want to start searching for alternatives just in case.

WHILE those four were forced to watch the weekend’s action, a few other players went down as the weekend unfolded. A few cash cows might need to be axed with Bailey Rice (shoulder), Tom Doedee (concussion) and Lachie Murphy (concussion) under the injury cloud now. Luke Dahlhaus (ankle sprain) and Shaun McKernan (hamstring) are due for lengthy stints on the sidelines and Roos youngster Alex Morgan (calf) might be about to join them. Rumours are swirling around possible injuries to Rory Sloane and Steele Sidebottom but they seem like smoke and mirrors more than anything else.

FINALLY players moving their way back into an AFL side including a handful of players who were in the Gold Coast vs. Swans NEAFL match on the weekend. I hope you are sitting down. Ok, Michael Barlow had a ridiculous 50 disposals to go along with 174 fantasy points, while his teammates Brayden Fiorini (42 disposals and 180 points) and Jacob Dawson (42 disposals and 141) also got in on the party. On the other side of the ball Swans magnet, Jordan Dawson was busy racking up touches (29) and tackles (23, yes that’s not a typo 23 tackles) for an enormous 216 points. Wow.

Fry’s Favourite Five

+5. Tom Mitchell, Hawks (MID, $896K – 187)
HOLY fuck. I mean what kind of creature is Tom Mitchell. Fantasy numbers aside for a minute, he might be on track for one of the all-time seasons collecting the footy and he doesn’t seem to be slowing down, tagger or no tagger. If you don’t have him you’re bad at this game.

+4. Clayton Oliver, Demons (MID, $745K – 136)
I flagged Oliver for a few weeks as must have property and he continues to show us why. His third straight score over 120, against a quality opponent mind you, makes him an awesome midfield upgrade for a failing premium.

Dark Horse Candidates for the 2018 Brownlow Medal BannerImage from heraldsun.com.au

+3. Alex Witherden, Lions (DEF, $631K – 138)
ANOTHER young gun forcing his way into a ton of teams this weekend is Alex Witherden. Some are considering him as a top-6 defender and he keeps getting the stats to prove he’s worthy of the lofty label.

+2. Elliot Yeo, Eagles (DEF/MID, $693K – 134)
WHAT a bounce back from Yeoy. Last week he was in the bad books and didn’t he rebound in a BIG way! A huge 130+ wasn’t a huge surprise considering they were going up against the hapless Bulldogs. Still, after nearly doubling his output in one week Yeo’s back in coaches good books.

+1. Taylor Adams, Pies (MID, $626K – 135)
SPEAKING of bouncing back, we have been waiting for these type of scores from Adams after his awesome season last year. Instead, he has largely failed us falling out of fashion with the fantasy community (just 2.16% ownership). Adams could be one to watch come finals time though with this big score perhaps the first of many.

Fry’s Frustrating Five

-5. Isaac Heeney, Swans (MID/FWD, $577K – 65)
COME on Isaac, we need more than that mate. Heeney has never been known for his high ceiling, but 65 points? AGAINST THE SUNS? This score definitely warrants a rage trade to send a message, but don’t do anything crazy.

-4. Joel Selwood, Cats (MID, $695K – 70)
THERE was a period of time a few weeks ago when I was seriously considering Selwood. The Cats veteran was on a tear post byes, chalking up back-to-back 120’s to move into serious trade conversations. He followed those scores up with two 70’s in the past fortnight though, quickly removing himself from those serious trade conversations.

-3. Jack Macrae, Bulldogs (MID, $736K – 76)
WHILE Elliot Yeo went from zero to hero in the space of one week, Jack Macrae managed to do the opposite. After shocking the world in his return from injury, he quickly fell back to reality with a measly 76. You can now afford to wait at least another week to snap up the Dogs stud as low as his price will go.

-2. Lance Franklin, Swans (FWD, $554K – 71)
ALL the signs were there. Everyone expected Buddy to go nuts against the Gold Coast Suns and instead he laid a giant egg. He managed just 71 points as his team was embarrassed on their home park. Surely he’ll bounce back against Essendon, right?

-1. Jake Lloyd, Swans (DEF, $688K – 73)
AGAIN at this time of year, these scores aren’t acceptable from premium type players. When choosing five negative players you can sometimes be forced to reach and Lloyd might fit that bill as well. Still, 73? Come on mate.

MVP Leaders

AFTER 18 rounds of footy, to no-one’s surprise, we have a clear leading vote-getter. Tom Mitchell paves the way with 15 votes, even with a few detractions from bad scores. Nat Fyfe and Josh Kelly are locked in a tie for 2nd with six votes apiece, while there’s also a tie for 3rd at the moment as Lachie Whitfield and Jack Macrae have four votes.

WE also have an obvious leader when it comes to the negative scores as well. Robbie Gray (-12) isn’t out by as large a margin from his peers, but his miserable weekends have caught up to him. Dustin Martin (-6) and Isaac Heeney (-6) are on thin ice as well.

AFL Fantasy 2018 - Round 18 Wrap Up 2Image from thewest.com.au

Noteworthy Numbers

WITH an uncharacteristically low score, Macrae (160 BE) once again owns the highest breakeven. Brodies Grundy (148 BE), Jack Crisp (138 BE), Josh Kelly (136 BE) and Steele Sidebottom (134 BE) are all bleeding cash fast as well. Colin O’Riordan (-16 BE) is the pick of the cash cows after he backed up his debut with an awesome second game. Jarrod Lienert (-8 BE) did enough to prove he deserves another run while Brayden Sier (14 BE) is also still (only just) a handy option. Yet again the form of Tom Mitchell (146.7 L3) is head and shoulders above everyone else. That being said, the numbers that Clayton Oliver (132.7 L3), Devon Smith (131 L3) and hell, even Jack Redden (129.3 L3) have been putting up are nothing to be sneezed at.

Quickfire Trade Thoughts

IN – A lot of coaches have flexibility with their trades this week, which means you could be looking at a luxury trade. I still think that Angus Brayshaw (DEF/MID, $699K – 88) and Lachie Whitfield (MID/DEF, $700K – 114) are must-haves down back, while Dayne Beams (MID, $718K – 85) and Patrick Cripps (MID, $723K – 116) are great options. Up forward the waters are a bit murkier, but Devon Smith (FWD/MID, $729K – 121) is taking the No. 1 mantle for himself. Also consider Josh Dunkley (FWD/MID, $610K – 104) as a value play.

IF a downgrade is your preference, then defenders Colin O’Riordan (DEF, $248K – 109) and Jarrod Lienert (DEF, $199K – 79) are the best options out there. Some (myself included) are even considering fielding O’Riordan, so he is the pick of the bunch. The ship might have sailed on the likes of Quintin Narkle (MID/FWD, $275K – 32) and Brayden Sier (MID, $301K – 69) after their price rise.

OUT – WHEN it comes to trading out players, a lot of your movement will depend on your team structure. If it’s an underperforming premium on the chopping block like Ed Curnow (MID, $618K – 84) or Jack Crisp (DEF, $787K – 109) take into account the chances of that player featuring in every game to close the season. Kade Simpson (DEF, $663K – 82) for example is someone who I wouldn’t be bringing in based on his age and injury worries.

AFL Fantasy 2018 - Round 18 Wrap Up 3Image from cootamundraherald.com.au

NOW is the perfect time to part ways with that final rookie on your field, a position I find myself in this week too. For a lot of people that means axing Tom Doedee (DEF, $488K – 27), Paul Ahern (FWD/MID, $787K – 55) or Bayley Fritsch (FWD/MID, $542K – 76) and ‘completing’ their side. Regardless of if the player still has room to grow or a favourable matchup, a premium beats out a rook. Every time.

My Trades

AS it stands I’m thinking of getting creative this week. In an effort to get rid of Luke Ryan, I’m downgrading him to the promising O’Riordan, which pockets me a ton of cash. This is a risky move, but I think he’s good for at least a 60 against the Bombers. That dough then allows me to turn Paul Ahern into (at this stage) Patrick Cripps, who faces the Gold Coast Suns this week. It’s the time of year to take risks.

Trades
Ryan → O’Riordan

Ahern → Cripps

Good luck in Round 19!

Peace ✌

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