22 days of an NBA season isn’t a massive sample size. Exactly one year ago, Joel Embiid looked like the MVP favourite averaging 33/11/5 for the Sixers, Ja Morant still had 15 games left on his suspension and the Rookie of the Year battle between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren was well and truly alive. There are still over seven months of basketball left before we crown a champion and almost anything can happen between now and then. Nevertheless, the mainstream stories of the 2024-25 season are starting to emerge and take shape.
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FACT – I am done with Joel Embiid
You can’t change my mind. Joel Embiid is an other-worldly talent who will go down in history as an offensive force – when he plays. Over his 11 seasons in the league though, the Sixers megastar has featured in 52.8% of the games Philadelphia has played while recording a subpar 29-30 postseason record. Uneducated hoops fans will get caught up in his 29/11/4 career averages, and yet, his games played percentage and playoff winning percentage are just two of the red flags that aren’t commonly associated with a winning player. From the lame off-season quotes about forgoing back-to-back’s and the blatant foul merchant behaviour that was on full display against New York, Troel Embiid can’t repair his reputation enough for me to give him another chance. At a certain point, you are who you are.
FICTION – Injuries will derail the Thunder
Chet Holmgren’s hip injury is a MASSIVE blow to Oklahoma City and they have quickly found themselves in an unenviable situation. With third-year pro Jaylin Williams and offseason signee Isaiah Hartenstein likely sidelined until the end of November, the Thunder have a glaring lack of big men to throw at their opponents for the next fortnight – with their tallest, healthy player 6-9 forward Ousmane Dieng.
They lost the rebounding battle convincingly in their first game without Holmgren, although a 45-point outburst from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ensured they still picked up the W. Life is obviously going to be harder for OKC without a recognisable big man to patrol the paint for the immediate future. However, their strength still lies in the depth of their roster and contributions from Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe will help the Thunder maintain their infectious energy that breeds winning.
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FACT – Dyson Daniels is the player Atlanta wanted Dejounte Murray to be
One could argue that Dyson Daniels has been the best defensive player in the NBA through a dozen games. On pace to shatter the per-game record for deflections and currently leading the league for steals, Atlanta fans will understandably be excited about the 21-year-old’s current trajectory. His dominance on the defensive side of the ball has Daniels shaping up as the perfect backcourt partner for the ultra-offensive Trae Young – a pairing they thought they already had after trading for Dejounte Murray in June of 2022. After two seasons with the former San Antonio All-Star, the Hawks opted to pull the plug on that experiment and sent Murray to NOLA, with Daniels a near afterthought in the trade to help match salaries. In the end, Atlanta may walk away as the winner of that deal, especially if the Young-Daniels combo continues to evolve like the perfect yin-yang pairing.
FICTION – The NBA Cup ‘look’ is awesome
At the risk of sounding like a boomer, I’m not a fan of the league’s in-season tournament endeavours. The concept is great, but do fans really need the courts to be an intense fluro colour for us to identify that we’re witnessing an NBA Cup game? For the last two seasons, a handful of the court designs and gimmicks that the league has brought in have been well received, although I can’t be the only one who finds it hard to enjoy a basketball game while the glare from the court blinds me through the screen. They’re close to having a great product that both players and fans alike are invested in during the early doldrums of an NBA season, but adding vibrant yellow to the Nuggets, Lakers and Heat courts isn’t the solution.
FACT – Milwaukee’s championship window has closed
At 4-8, I’m ready to stick a fork in Milwaukee as a championship contender. Almost 85% of the NBA season remains, giving the Bucks plenty of time to vault themselves up from the bottom of the standings and challenge for a playoff berth. However, as I have discussed multiple times on my podcast during the 2024-25 season, Milwaukee has very little wiggle room to improve their team. Hamstrung by the second apron, there isn’t a move that will allow them to find another running mate alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and an aging Damian Lillard – with the rest of the roster hardly instilling fans with confidence. Role players who joined the crusade in the offseason including Gary Trent Jr, Delon Wright and Taurean Prince aren’t going to shift the needle for the Bucks and after one playoff series win in the past three seasons, it’s fair to pressume the inevitable slide is here.
Image from usatoday.com
FICTION – The 2024 draft class is full of busts
There wasn’t a lot of optimism surrounding the draft class of 2024, with most experts and analysts pointing out the shortcomings of almost every prospect aiming to enter the league. We may not see anyone evolve into a franchise-changing talent, but multiple rookies are turning heads just over three weeks into their careers. Washington’s trio of young studs – Alex Sarr, Keyshawn George and Bub Carrington – may finally be giving their faithful fans something to be excited by, while Memphis has multiple first-year studs of their own in Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey. Zaccharie Risacher is another Zach who has vaulted himself into ROY contention with last year’s No. 1 pick growing with every game he plays as he contributes to Atlanta’s success on a nightly basis. There’s also Stefon Castle, Donovan Clingan, Dalton Knecht, Yves Missi, Jared McCain and I could keep going, but you get the point – the 2024 draft has some young studs who may soon become household names.
FACT – Victor Wembanyama is shooting too many 3’s
Alright, full disclosure I wrote this headline three games ago when Victor Wembanyama was shooting 14-62 (22.6%) on the season from three-point land. Since then, the Spurs’ sensation has been unconscious from behind the arc – making 20-37 and improving his season average to 34.3% from deep. In his sophomore season, it appears Wemby is more comfortable shooting threes over patrolling the paint on offence. Through the 12 games San Antonio has played so far in 2024-25, nearly half (48.5%) of Wembanyama’s shot attempts have come from the three-point line!
For context, 51.5% of Steph Curry’s career attempts have come from distance and no offence to Wemby, but he isn’t in the same stratosphere as Curry as a lethal threat from deep. I’d much rather see him pick-and-roll when in screening situations – creating a matchup nightmare for opponents instead of a pick-and-pop player who chucks up over eight attempts a night from long distance. If he keeps hitting 6-8 of them I guess it won’t matter, although it’s a trend that I’ll be watching closely as the season progresses.
FICTION – Cleveland’s undefeated start is an anomaly
Taking care of business against Philadelphia on the road helped the Cavs stretch their unbeaten run to 13 games to open the season. Granted, a lot of the teams they’ve beaten up on have been underachieving East squads who haven’t posed much of a nightly threat. Still, 13-0 to start the season is something that only five other teams have previously achieved and Cleveland hasn’t needed Donovan Mitchell to average 35+ PPG for them to experience success. In fact in a recent postgame interview, Mitchell highlighted that their hot start has been due to an even contribution from literally everyone on the roster. There have been games when Darius Garland has taken over down the stretch, Jarrett Allen has been a force in the paint, Evan Mobley has thrived with the ball in his hands, or a variety of Cleveland’s bench players have stood up. Time will tell if Kenny Atkinson’s men can maintain this form in the postseason however, they look every bit like a 60-win team through the early portion of the campaign.
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